Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible?
Report: Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible?
Author: Karim Sadjadpour
Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Date: October 2008
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This brief highlights areas of mutual interest between Iran and the U.S. that may serve as a starting point for productive engagement between the two countries. It also provides guidelines for commencing such engagement.
Key recommendations:
1. Getting the Timing Right
It would be inadvisable for the next U.S. president to immediately seek comprehensive engagement as this might enhance Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s chances of reelection in Iran’s June 2009 presidential elections.
2. Build confidence on issues of common interest:
Iraq: achieving stability and territorial integrity, absent sectarian strife
Afghanistan: stability and promoting reconstruction; opposition to the Taliban; counter-narcotics; support of President Karzai
Nuclear proliferation: avoid nuclear arms race in the Middle East
Energy: Exploit Iran’s liquefied natural gas resources to challenge Russia’s energy leverage over Europe
Terrorism: Oppose Al-Qaeda
3. Deal with those who hold power
Ayatollah Khamenei is unquestionably Iran’s most powerful man. He may not make decisions unilaterally, but no major decisions can be made without his consent. As Supreme Leader he has constitutional authority over the main levers of state, namely the judiciary, military, and media. He also effectively controls the country’s second most powerful institution, the Guardian Council. Khamenei must be convinced that Washington is prepared to recognize and respect the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic and must be disabused of his conviction that U.S. policy is to bring about regime change, not negotiate behavior change.
4. Speak softly
A hostile U.S. rhetorical line allows Iran’s leadership to paint the United States as an aggressor—both internationally and domestically—and absolve itself from responsibility for its largely self-inflicted isolation and soiled international reputation.
5. Don’t let the spoilers set the tenor
Though staying the course will require heavy expenditures of both personal leadership and political capital, if Washington pulls back from confidence building with Tehran in retaliation for an egregious act committed by the spoilers, the spoilers will have achieved their goal.
6. Be discreet
When it comes to U.S.–Iranian interaction, the record shows that “secret” or “private” discussions out of public earshot have a greater success rate.
7. Maintain and international approach
Washington must seek to maintain a multilateral approach toward Iran, especially regarding the nuclear issue. Like Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Tehran is highly adept at identifying and exploiting rifts in the international community, and diplomatic efforts to check Iran’s nuclear ambitions will unravel if key countries approach Iran with competing redlines.
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