Major Public Support for Obama Nuclear Policies; Questions Remain
A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps poll taken May 10-12, 2009 has found that a majority of Americans, 71%, to be exact, supports President Obama's policies on a road to "a world free of nuclear weapons" - they just don't do so in those words.
Key findings from the poll should be taken into consideration by political activists and policy activists, particularly the message that how we talk about the issues we care about will have a tremendous impact on public opinion.
Select portions of the polling and analysis are below, or find the complete analysis here and the polling data here, from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Democracy Corps.
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Methodology: This analysis is based on a national survey of 1,000 2008 voters including 160 interviewed on cell phones (121 unweighted) and 852 likely 2010 voters (861 unweighted) conducted for Democracy Corps by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, May 10-12, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 percent among 2008 voters and 3.3 among percent likely 2010 voters.
From the covering analysis:
Nuclear Weapons Strategy. On April 5, in a major speech in Prague, President Obama outlined a new nuclear weapons policy and strategy for combating nuclear proliferation, as part of a broader objective of moving toward “a world without nuclear weapons.” Voters strongly back this initiative as well, with 58 percent of likely voters saying they approve of Obama’s job performance on “America’s policies on nuclear weapons,” and an even higher 68 percent supporting the new Obama nuclear policy once it is described in the survey.
Yet voters have real reservations about the president’s over-arching goal of “a world without nuclear weapons,” and the survey suggests that Obama actually depresses public support for his policy somewhat by invoking that idealistic goal. A strong 63 to 32 percent majority of likely voters say that “eliminating all nuclear weapons in the world is not realistic or good for America’s security” (rejecting the alternative statement, “it should be America’s goal to eliminate all nuclear weapons in the world”). Most of those who doubt this goal do so strongly (43 out of the 63 percent). Opposition to the president’s long-term vision crosses party lines, with even a 59 to 39 percent majority of Democrats objecting to this goal.
A controlled experiment suggests that invoking the “zero option” actually undermines support for the president’s strategy – even among his own supporters. A 66 percent majority supports the president’s nuclear policy when it is described as pursuing “the goal of a world without nuclear weapons;” but an even stronger 71 percent backs the policy when that phrase is omitted. Interestingly, support drops among both Democrats and Republicans when the “world without nuclear weapons” goal is invoked (although support from independents rises). In 2008 swing states, the net approval margin for the policy is 21 points higher when framed without the call for “a world without nuclear weapons.” Thus, the “zero option” emphasis garners no extra net support, while – as the survey reveals – it provides fodder for relatively potent Republican attacks.
The survey suggests that Obama may generate much stronger support with the kind of messages he used on this issue during the presidential campaign, when he said his goal was, “to keep nuclear weapons and nuclear materials away from terrorists.” Voters sees such a possibility as the number one threat facing America at this point – and that priority is shared by Democrats, Republicans and independents – while opinion formers and younger voters see a related dynamic as the biggest threat, the nuclear weapons programs in states like North Korea and Iran.
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Select questions and responses from the complete polling data:
When prompted to select a statement:
35% - It should be America's goal to eliminate all nuclear weapons in the world
60% - Eliminating all nuclear weapons in the world is not realistic or good for America's security.
While in Europe, President Obama announced that the U.S. would pursue the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, including new negotiations with Russia to reduce both countries' nuclear arsenals, a global ban on nuclear testing, and new efforts to stem the proliferation of nuclear materials and weapons. Based on what you know, do you support or oppose these policies?
66% - support
24% - oppose
While in Europe, President Obama announced that the U.S. would pursue new negotiations with Russia to reduce both countries' nuclear arsenals, a global ban on nuclear testing, and new efforts to stem the proliferation of nuclear materials and weapons. Based on what you know, do you support or oppose these policies?
70% - support
15% - oppose
Now I'm going to read you some criticisms some people might make about President Obama. For each criticism, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubt in your own mind about President Obama and his national security policies.
Obama is naive about nuclear weapons. He says his goal is a World without nuclear weapons, and he is planning to make deep cuts in our nuclear weapons arsenal, even though we have no real way of verifying whether other countries are cutting their arsenals
49% - serious doubts
46% - not serious doubts
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