Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Potential U.S. Ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Fact Sheet

by Jeff Lindemyer [contact information]

April 15, 2008

• Ratification by the United States of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) requires 67 votes in favor in the Senate. On October 13, 1999, the Senate failed to ratify the CTBT in a vote of 51-48. This was the first security-related treaty in 80 years that the Senate did not ratify.
• Opposition to the CBT was driven by three main concerns:
  1. Stockpile Stewardship: the impact of the treaty on the ability of the United States to maintain the safety and reliability of its nuclear stockpile and the adequacy of the Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) to ensure that the enduring stockpile remains a safe, effective, and reliable deterrent without having to rely on nuclear testing;
  2. Verification: the capability of the international nuclear test monitoring system to detect low-yield explosions, and how effective and reliable the verification system could be considered to be; and
  3. Nonproliferation Benefits: whether the treaty in fact offered significant nonproliferation benefits as claimed by its supporters.
• According to a recent poll released by the University of Maryland's Center for International and Security Studies and its Program on International Policy Attitudes, 80% of Americans and 79% of Russians think their country "should participate in the treaty that would prohibit nuclear test explosions worldwide" (e.g. the CTBT). Only 18% of Americans and 10% of Russians oppose the Treaty. Among Americans, 73% of Republicans support CTBT participation, as do 78% of Independents and 86% of Democrats.
• U.S. public support for the CTBT has been constant. When asked by the Chicago Council in 2004 and 2002, 87% and 81%, respectively, said the United States should participate in the CTBT. In 1999 - the year the U.S. Senate voted against ratification - a poll by Mellman/Wirthlin found that 82% said the Senate should approve it. In 1994, as CTBT negotiations were ongoing, 80% of Americans said that the "president should push to get a nuclear test ban approved by 1995," according to the ICR Survey Research Group.
• In their now famous series of Wall Street Journal op-eds, George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn advocated "a bipartisan process with the Senate, including understandings to increase confidence and provide for periodic review, to achieve ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, taking advantage of recent technical advances, and working to secure ratification by other key states."
• Following their lead, both leading Democratic presidential candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, have expressed strong support for ratifying the CTBT. Obama stated that "As president, I will make it my priority to build bipartisan consensus behind ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty." Clinton echoed that "As President, I will work to build the bipartisan support that would be needed to get it approved and ratified." Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona voted against the CTBT in 1999.
• Multiple pieces of legislation have been introduced in Congress in support of the CTBT recently.
  1. In the House, this includes a resolution (H.Res.882), introduced by Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) and co-sponsored by 39 others, "Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the Senate should initiate a bipartisan process to give its advice and consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty." The bill, however, is stuck in the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and is not likely to see action in 2008.
  2. In the Senate, the Armed Services Committee adopted a non-binding provision in its 2008 Defense Authorization bill that stated that "The Senate should ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty." Opposition to this language was spearheaded by Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), and the provision was removed from the text that reached the full Senate and eventually became law.