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START Follow-On Treaty and Further Nuclear Reductions: Where Are We?

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April 13, 2009


Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev on April 1, 2009 (AP)

For more information, see the START Resource Center

THE MANY POSITIVES

  1. President Barack Obama has made it clear since the beginning of his administration that negotiating a nuclear weapons reduction treaty with Russia is a high priority. He reiterated this commitment at a February 9 press conference.
  2. The expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) agreement on December 5, 2009 provides a forcing mechanism to prod the United States and Russia into action.
  3. On March 6, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signed an accord in Geneva making it a priority to reach a bilateral agreement before the end of the year.
  4. On April 1, President Obama and Russian President Dimitry Medvedev agreed “to pursue new and verifiable reductions in our strategic offensive arsenals in a step-by-step process…to start talks immediately on this new treaty.”
  5. A scheduled meeting between the two heads of state in July makes for a second forcing mechanism. By that date, the treaty negotiators have been tasked to provide a “report on results achieved in working out the new agreement.”
  6. On April 5, President Obama gave further impetus to the issue of nuclear weapons reductions in his speech in Prague, saying “I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.” Obama further promised that that any treaty negotiated this year “will set the stage for further cuts, and we will seek to include all nuclear weapons states in this endeavor.”
  7. There is substantial support for further nuclear weapons reductions among current and former Republican officials. This includes Secretary of Defense Robert Gates; Republican Senators John McCain and Richard Lugar; former Republican Secretaries of State George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, and James Baker; former Republican Secretaries of Defense James Schlesinger and Frank Carlucci; and many more.
  8. At this time, there is no known opposition from Republican Senators to modest reductions of nuclear weapons.
  9. Since the 1990s, the Senate has displayed overwhelming and bipartisan support for nuclear reduction treaties: The START agreement was approved 93 to 6 in 1992 and the Treaty of Moscow (SORT) 95 to 0 in 2003.
  10. Think tank and advocacy groups concerned with nuclear weapons are united in favor of a goal of no more than 1,000 deployed nuclear weapons as a step toward a world free of nuclear weapons. These groups have expressed their position in a letter to the Executive Branch.

THE CONCERNS

  1. There is a short period of time available to complete all the details of an agreement (and there are many issues to be negotiated), produce the paperwork needed to go to the Senate, hold hearings, and find Senate floor time before the December 5 deadline. This may require a modest “first round agreement” by the end of the year that can then be bolstered by a “second round agreement” in 2010 or beyond.
  2. So far this year, Republicans in Congress have met most of Obama’s initiatives with united opposition. It is not clear whether that attitude will extend to the START follow-on treaty.
  3. Early indications suggest that Senators and former Republican officials who may support a modest follow-on treaty may not endorse reductions to 1,000 deployed nuclear weapons or fewer in a second stage of negotiations.
  4. The startup of the negotiations has been slowed by key appointees only now taking their positions in the Obama administration. Moreover, the exodus of nuclear experts from government over the past eight years has resulted in a dearth of qualified officials available to implement Obama’s initiatives.
  5. It is difficult for grassroots organizations to organize support for a treaty that has not yet been negotiated.

KEY REPUBLICAN SENATORS

Kit Bond of Missouri, ranking member on Intelligence Committee

Thad Cochran of Mississippi, ranking member on Appropriations Committee (including Defense Appropriations Subcommittee)

Bob Corker of Tennessee, member of Foreign Relations Committee and National Security Working Group

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, member of Armed Services Committee (including Subcommittee on Strategic Forces)

Jon Kyl of Arizona, Republican Whip

Richard Lugar of Indiana, ranking member on Foreign Relations Committee

John McCain of Arizona, ranking member on Armed Services Committee

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Republican Leader

Jeff Sessions of Alabama, ranking member on Subcommittee on Strategic Forces of the Armed Services Committee

George Voinovich of Ohio, member of National Security Working Group