Nuclear Terrorism
World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. AP photo.
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RECENT ANALYSIS
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May 12, 2008
Nuclear Terrorism is a Likely Event
In this opinion editorial published in the Knoxville News Sentinel, Senior Military Fellow Lt. Gen. Robert Gard argues that our government is not taking the necessary steps to prevent nuclear terrorism, even though it is one of the gravest threats to U.S. security. "It is incredible that our government is failing to accord the highest priority to taking the actions necessary to prevent terrorists from carrying out their threat to detonate a nuclear weapon on the territory of the United States, which would forever change our way of life," writes Gard. -
May 12, 2008
Guantanamo Has Given Us a Bad Name
In redefining the laws of war, the United States has overridden long-established international human rights law enshrined in United Nations detainment policies. -
Mar 5, 2008
History, Design, and Prospects for Improving Pakistan's Nuclear Personnel Reliability Program (PRP)
Pakistan's nuclear weapons program has generated a huge amount of international concern based on the country's political instability and burgeoning Islamic radicalism. The risk to international security posed by Pakistan's nuclear weapons depends in no small part on the quality of the country's Personnel Reliability Programs. - See more articles »
CENTER EXPERT
Leonor Tomero
Director for Nuclear Non-Proliferation
202-546-0795 ext.119
ltomero AT armscontrolcenter DOT org
Nuclear terrorism is one of the most serious threats to the security of the United States. The attacks of September 11, 2001 tragically demonstrated the reality of terrorism to the American people, but nearly six years later, serious efforts are still urgently needed to prevent a nuclear attack from occurring in the U.S.
Most experts agree that any nation would take an enormous risk in knowingly providing a nuclear weapon or nuclear materials to a terrorist organization because of the unpredictable consequences of cooperating with a renegade group. If a state-supplied nuclear weapon were ever used against a nuclear-armed state by terrorists, the resultant retaliation against the supplying state would be swift and massive.
If a state didn't knowingly provide a nuclear weapon, how then could terrorists get one?
One way would be to surreptitiously buy or steal an assembled nuclear weapon without the supplying nuclear state's official knowledge. For example, a terrorist group could obtain unaccounted "loose nukes" in Russia without the Duma or the Russian administration having any knowledge of the transaction.
A second way would be for terrorists to obtain enough weapons-grade material to assemble a weapon themselves. A possible source is Russia and the former Soviet Union, where sites with relatively minimal security provide abundant opportunities for terrorists. Assembling the device, however, would pose serious technical challenges to a terrorist group, although securing the services of a renegade nuclear scientist and setting up a makeshift laboratory are not impossibilities.
Efforts to reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism include programs such as Cooperative Threat Reduction, commonly known as Nunn-Lugar, aimed at securing and dismantling vulnerable nuclear materials in the former Soviet Union; Global Threat Reduction Initiative, directed at securing and eliminating global high-risk nuclear and radiological materials and equipment; and Materials Protection Control and Accounting Program, geared towards improving security and accounting for highly enriched uranium (HEU) in Russia and the former Soviet Union. While these programs have demonstrated substantial progress in reducing the threat, current estimates conclude that there are still approximately 1,700 tons of HEU and around 500 tons of separated plutonium stockpiled globally (SIPRI Yearbook 2007).
A comprehensive approach is needed to reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism. Top priorities should include:
- Securing existing nuclear weapons and materials
- Creating the position of "Nuclear Terrorism Czar" at the level of deputy national security advisor in order to coordinate nuclear nonproliferation efforts
- Disrupting terrorist finances
- Developing a contingency plan in case of attack
FACT SHEETS
May 12, 2008 Nuclear Terrorism is a Likely Event
Mar 5, 2008 History, Design, and Prospects for Improving Pakistan's Nuclear Personnel Reliability Program (PRP)
ADDITIONAL READING
- Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, (New York: Henry Holt & Company, 2004).
- Matthew Bunn, Securing the Bomb 2007, (Washington, D.C.: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, and Nuclear Threat Initiative, September 2007).
- Ashton Carter, Michael May, and William Perry, "The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a US City," The Washington Quarterly 30:4 (Autumn 2007), pp. 19-32.
- Charles Ferguson and William Potter, with Amy Sands, Leonard Spector, and Fred Wehling, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism, (New York: Routledge, 2005).