Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Breakdown of the Feb. 13, 2007 North Korea Agreement

by Leonor Tomero [contact information]

March 13, 2007

In a welcome break-through to an impasse in the negotiations to stop North Korea's nuclear weapon program, which had lasted almost eighteen months, the members of the Six Party Talks (United States, China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, and South Korea) announced on February 13, 2007 an agreement to shut down North Korea's nuclear reactors at Yongbyon.  The agreement sets out a process to begin implementation of steps that will move North Korea closer to rolling back its nuclear weapon program.

PROVISIONS OF THE FEBRUARY 13TH AGREEMENT

The February 13 agreement (see full text) sets out a several-step process:

1. First, within 60 days from the announcement of the agreement:

• North Korea
  • "shut[s] down and seal[s] for the purpose of eventual abandonment" its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon
  • readmits inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency
  • discusses with the other parties a complete list of all its nuclear programs
• In exchange:
  • North Korea receives 50,000 tons of heavy fuel
  • North Korea and the United States begin bilateral talks to move towards full diplomatic relations, including starting the process of removing North Korea from the state sponsors of terrorism list and moving towards ending the application of the Trading with the Enemy Act to North Korea
  • North Korea and Japan start bilateral talks toward normalizing their relations (the main focus of these talks focus on the abductees issue)
  • 5 working groups are set up and start meeting to ensure progress on these steps and plan the implementation of the September 2005 Joint Statement:
    • Denuclearization of the Korea Peninsula
    • Normalization of North Korean-US relations
    • Normalization of North Korean-Japanese relations
    • Economy and Energy Cooperation
    • Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism

Amb. Chris Hill plans to attend the meetings of several of these working groups.

2. At the end of the 60 days:

• the six countries will hold a ministerial meeting to assess whether these initial steps have been implemented and to plan further steps.  Before the end of this first phase, the parties will meet on March 19 to assess progress so far and discuss the next phase.

3. Thereafter, the agreement provides further steps to implement the September 2005 Joint Statement, including that:

• North Korea will make further progress in disabling and ultimately abandoning its nuclear facilities (including the graphite-moderated reactors and reprocessing plants
• North Korea will receive economic, energy and humanitarian assistance, specifically up to 950,000 tons of heavy fuel oil.  Amb. Hill estimated the cost of the fuel oil at $220 million to be divided between the United States, China, Russia, South Korea and perhaps Japan.

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Despite this important break-through and while there is cause to be cautiously optimistic, several significant challenges remain ahead.  First in the near-term, North Korea's providing a complete list of its nuclear programs will be one of the most important steps in the next few weeks.  North Korea's suspected highly-enriched uranium (HEU) activities, its existing stocks of separated plutonium and any existing nuclear weapons may prove tough points of negotiation as North Korea might not be inclined to readily surrender all aspects of its nuclear program.  Sequencing and intrusive verification will also be tough negotiating points, and could become reasons for North Korea to stall further progress.  Details related to, and implementation of, other matters such as normalization of US-North Korea and Japan-North Korea relations involve complex issues that will require time to resolve.   

In the next several weeks, whether North Korea delivers on its short-term promises and whether working groups can make tangible progress in laying out an agenda and coming to agreement on future steps will prove crucial for moving forward and making further progress.

SEPTEMBER 2006 AGREEMENT

In the September 2005 Joint Statement (see full text), North Korea had agreed to abandon its nuclear weapon programs and nuclear weapons, and return to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  In exchange, the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea agreed to provide North Korea with energy, economic and humanitarian assistance, including providing North Korea with two light water-reactors.  The statement also provides for normalization of relations between North Korea and the United States, and between North Korea and Japan.

Negotiations had broken down less than a day after the Six Parties had signed the September 2005 Joint Statement due to the timing of the US Treasury imposing sanctions on a Macau bank that had been suspected of supporting North Korea's counterfeiting and money laundering activities, and due to disagreement about the terms of implementation of the Joint Statement (at the signing of the agreement, the United States added certain conditions and interpretations that had not been part of the negotiations and North Korea responded by insisting on construction of the light-water reactors before any dismantlement of North Korean nuclear programs could occur).

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Interview with Robert Gallucci, Michael Green, and David Asher, All Things Considered, NPR, Feb, 15, 2007. Available online.

Interview with Gary Samore, Council on Foreign Relations, Feb. 13, 2007. Available online.

North Korea to Suspend Plutonium Production, by Leon Sigal, MIT Center for International Studies, March 1, 2007. Available online.

Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation press release, Feb. 13, 1007. Available online.

North Korea Nuke Deal Cheat Sheet (comparison of Feb. 13 agreement with 1994 Agreed Framework) by Eric Hundman of the Center for Defense Information, Passport (Foreign Policy blog) available online.

"Conservatives Assails Non-Proliferation Accord," Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Feb. 15, 2007, available online.

The North Korea Plutonium Stock - February 2007, by David Albright and Paul Brannan, Institute for Science and International Security, Feb. 20, 2007, available online.