New Chances for Peace in South Asia
12/04/00
The past week has seen India and Pakistan take cautious steps towards achieving a peaceful resolution to a half-century of hostilities, primarily over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. November 27, the first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, also marked the first day of a unilateral cease-fire declared by the Indian government in an effort to stimulate peaceful dialogue between India and separatist groups in the Indian-controlled section of Kashmir. The Pakistani government responded on December 2 by directing its troops to show “maximum restraint” along the line of control in Kashmir that separates Indian and Pakistani forces. Finally, Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammed Riaz Khan today stated that Pakistan would not oppose one-on-one talks between Kashmiri separatists and the Indian government. Previously Pakistan insisted on being included in any negotiations on Kashmir.
Despite these positive developments, a lasting and stable peace in Kashmir remains elusive in the near term. Although Pakistan has softened its position on talks between separatists and the Indian government, it accepts such talks only as long as they lead to three-way negotiations that would include Pakistan. India remains adamantly opposed to three-way talks. Furthermore, continued violence threatens to dissolve the current cease-fire. Although the political wing of the Kashmir separatist movement, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, has welcomed the cease-fire, militant groups including Pakistan-backed Hizbul Mujaheddin have rejected India’s offer and vowed to continue their attacks during the holy month. This growing rift between political and militant separatists in Kashmir could pose a formidable challenge to any peace process.
Nevertheless, this month presents an important window of opportunity in South Asia as India and Pakistan— both states that possess nuclear weapons— are attempting to silence their guns for a time. If India capitalizes on the opportunity to establish dialogue with political separatists in Kashmir, such talks could lead to a broader peace dialogue that would include Pakistan and ultimately reduce the threat of nuclear confrontation in South Asia.