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Non-Proliferation Analysis Archive

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Aug 25, 2010

Jimmy Carter to the Rescue... Again

Former President Jimmy Carter is in North Korea to secure the release of an American missionary sentenced to eight years of hard labor for illegal entry. The trip comes amid a North Korean nuclear impasse and heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula. Why was Carter chosen to go now and what can we expect from his visit?

Aug 17, 2010

Is a “Region by Region” Approach Really Effective in Preventing the Spread of Sensitive Nuclear Technology?

Following an August 3 report in the Wall Street Journal, the arms control blogosphere has been buzzing about a nearly finalized nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Vietnam. According to the Journal, and now other outlets including The Guardian and Global Security Newswire , the U.S.-Vietnam deal has considerably weaker proliferation controls than the Obama administration has demanded in the past – specifically, the agreement would allow Vietnam to retain the right to enrich uranium.

Aug 13, 2010

Current Status of Iran's Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs

There is no hard consensus as to exactly how close Iran is to acquiring a nuclear weapon, fitting a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile, and/or developing a ballistic missile capable of reaching most of Europe and the United States. In this updated fact sheet, Louis Hellman, Alex Rothman, and Laicie Olson survey the relevant intelligence reports and summarizes the various estimates.

Aug 11, 2010

Another Squeeze

The U.S. will soon announce a fresh list of sanctions against North Korea to dry up the regime’s illegal cash sources that fund its nuclear weapons programs. Pyongyang is expected to unleash more provocations, even a third nuclear test, in retaliation as witnessed in the past. Still, the pressure track is expected to continue until the regime changes its behavior or until a leadership transition takes place in the North.

Aug 2, 2010

Making the 2012 Middle East Conference Work

It is evident that without Israel’s participation at the 2012 Conference, it will be unlikely that much progress will be realized towards the creation of a Middle East free of WMD. Efforts must be made to ensure all parties remember that the Conference is not just about nuclear weapons, while for its part, Israel must accept the necessity of engaging in the Conference simultaneous to peace building and regional diplomacy, writes Chad O'Caroll in this new analysis.

Jun 29, 2010

Why the latest US-Russian arms control agreement is only a START

The ‘New START’ Treaty signed by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev in Prague on 8 April 2010 is an important step in the renewed drive for nuclear disarmament, but its overall contribution towards the goal of a world free from nuclear weapons should not be overstated writes Andrew Futter in this new analysis.

Jun 1, 2010

John Isaacs Speaks in Malaysia

However you feel about the role of the United States in initiating the atomic age, whatever you think of the long American and Soviet arms race, it is my firm belief that the United States must provide leadership to end the nuclear arms race – and move towards a world free of nuclear weapons, said John Isaacs in a speech delivered in Malaysia on 2 June 2010.

May 20, 2010

GOP Critics vs. the Pentagon

A distressing trend has developed in relation to the politicization of U.S. nuclear weapons policy - President Obama is criticized, while Pentagon support for the president is ignored. In short, there is a pattern emerging of selective and misleading outrage, with partisan critics caricaturizing Obama's policies while neglecting to mention or acknowledge that the policies he is advancing enjoy the strong support of the nation's military leadership, writes General Robert Gard in the Lexington Herald-Leader.

Apr 27, 2010

New START and the Obama Nuclear Agenda

Despite the end of the U.S.-Soviet competition, the remaining 23,000 nuclear bombs across the globe present a clear and present danger to U.S. security. The President's program to focus the world's attention on this problem and to take serious steps to ameliorate this threat is critical to preventing nuclear catastrophes, write Robert Gard and John Isaacs in the Huffington Post.

Apr 25, 2010

New START Treaty Crucial for U.S. Security

Reducing the numbers and stopping the spread of nuclear weapons will require a global effort, and both New START and the test ban treaty are critical measures that will do both, greatly enhancing our national security. The fate of New START in the Senate will decide the outcome of our nuclear spring and our hopes for a more secure future, writes Richard Klass in the Sun Journal.

Apr 19, 2010

Young voices critical to advancing nuclear security

Indeed, the greatest national security threat for my generation is no longer determined by which countries possess nuclear weapons — it is the very existence of the weapons themselves, writes Katie Mounts in the Times Record.

Apr 19, 2010

Nuclear weapons are relics

Once approved by each county’s legislative bodies, New START will make important advances in reducing the unnecessarily large nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia. It’s high time for nuclear weapons--vestiges of a bygone era--to be drastically and decisively reduced in number, writes Mary Slosson in the Register Citizen.

Apr 14, 2010

Those Were the Weeks That Were: Nuclear Spring

Stepping back from the past few frantic days on nuclear weapons issues, it is useful to realize how much has been accomplished. The last two weeks have arguably been the two most eventful weeks on reducing the dangers posed by nuclear weapons since the advent of the nuclear age, writes John Isaacs in this new analysis.

Apr 14, 2010

START follow-on: The Senate calculus

On April 8, after nearly a year of tough negotiations, the U.S. and Russia signed the "New START" treaty in Prague, Czech Republic. As John Isaacs explains in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the result of these difficult negotiations will now face what could be equally tortuous consideration by the U.S. Senate.

Apr 5, 2010

Response to Hendrik Hertzberg

Given the documented interest in nuclear materials of terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, and given the questionable assumptions that nuclear-energy economics is fraught with, it makes little sense to push nuclear power at a time when protections against proliferation are still so problematic, writes Leonard Weiss in the New Yorker.

Mar 29, 2010

Analysis of the "New START" Treaty

On March 26, President Obama announced that after nearly a year of tough negotiations, the U.S. and Russia have reached agreement on the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures to Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (the “New START Treaty”). In this analysis, John Isaacs and Kingston Reif examine what is known about the treaty to date.

Mar 15, 2010

India and the NPT

National Advisory Board member Leonard Weiss publishes an article on India and the forthcoming 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference in the March 2010 edition of Strategic Analysis.

Mar 9, 2010

Lips and Teeth

If it is true that North Korea’s WMD programs are being funded principally from illicit arms sales, then it is imperative that China take its UN Security Council sanctions obligations more seriously. In this new analysis, Chad O'Caroll questions whether this duty will ever be compatible with China’s goal of maintaining North Korean regime stability.

Mar 2, 2010

FY 2011 Threat Reduction and Nonproliferation Funding

In his historic Prague speech on nuclear weapons, President Obama pledged that the United States would lead “a new international effort to secure all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years.” While last year's budget request was well below what is necessary to begin the hard work of achieving this lofty goal, the administration's Fiscal Year 2011 request includes significant increases for many key threat reduction and nonproliferation programs.

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