Pentagon Report: Bush Missile Defense of Questionable Utility
2/25/03
The Pentagon’s top evaluator of weapons program, Thomas P. Christie, recently issued a report that implicitly questions the usefulness or effectiveness of the Bush Administration’s missile defense deployment plan in Alaska and California by the end of 2004.
The report by the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, was remarkable for its candor about the limited effectiveness of the proposed deployment plan.
The following are key quotes from the document
- No evidence that Bush deployment plan will work
- “In FY02, the GMD [ground-based midcourse missile defense] program continue to demonstrate the technical feasibility of intercepting a ‘bullet with a bullet’ against simple target complexes. However, due to the stage of development and the following testing limitations, the GMD element has yet to demonstrate significant operational capability.”
- Last year’s tests lacked realism
- “The GMD [ground-based midcourse missile defense] test program in FY 02 has suffered from the lack of production-representative test articles and test infrastructure limitations.”
- No way to evaluate whether Bush plan will work
- “As the test bed matures and capabilities are demonstrated, an inherent defensive capability will develop. However, it will be very difficult to estimate operational availability or performance in real engagement conditions. This is a test bed, first and foremost.”
Major problems with tests thus far
- “Lack of a deployable boost vehicle”
- “Lack of a realistically placed midcourse sensor”
- “All the flight tests have similar flyout and engagement parameters.”
- “This constraint continues to force an unrealistic engagement at relatively low altitudes and with both the target and interceptor velocities directed downward.”
Aegis sea-based system completed only simple tests
- “Given the uncertainty of the threat, it is unclear that the target signatures will be consistent with the threat when fielded.”
THAAD not ready either
- “[Aegis] flight test engagement scenarios have been simplistic and limited to establishing the hit-to-kill proof-of-concept, and flight qualifying non-legacy hardware and software components of the Aegis BMD system … There are significant capabilities yet to be demonstrated before the engagement conditions can be considered operationally realistic.”
Airborne laser barely more than a concept
- “At this time, the THAAD [Theater High Altitude Area Defense] element has no operational capability because there is no deployable hardware.”
Early entry of any weapon into production questionable
- “There is no ABL [Airborne Laser] emergency capability apart from some passive detection capabilities.”
- "One of my chief concerns is the potential for systems to circumvent the rigorous acquisition process and enter into full-rate production or into the hands of our warfighters without learning the operational capabilities and limitations demonstrated by adequate operational testing and evaluation.”
Blaming delays on rigorous testing ‘akin to shooting the messenger’
- "I continue to see increased pressure to reduce operational T&E [testing and evaluation] in particular, and T&E in particular. I am concerned that emphasis within the acquisition community to control cost and schedule is leading to a practice in which learning about performance is avoided. The cost of testing complex systems, as well as the risk of performance shortfalls delaying programs further, is motivating managers to skimp on testing. Performance results are the product of testing and, if poor, may force further development to correct deficiencies. Additional development inevitably leads to schedule delays and increased cost. Blaming T&E for cost increases and schedule delays is a practice akin to shooting the messenger.”
Premature deployment can put Americans at risk
- “I recognize and agree, in principle, with the desire to field new capabilities as soon as possible, but that desire should be tempered with the responsibility to ensure that the weapons will not put Americans at risk.”