Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Is Iran Currently an Existential Threat to the United States? A Side-By-Side Comparison of Military Capabilities

by John Isaacs [contact information]

by Travis Sharp [contact information]

July 7, 2008

For related analysis, see:
Time for a Diplomatic Surge with Iran
American-Iranian Relations: A Code of Conduct and Guide for Action
Risky Business: Why Attacking Iran is a Bad Idea

Iran currently presents a number of serious problems for the United States. Iran could attack U.S. forces in Iraq or use its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. These elements of the Iranian threat, however, are all too often folded into the breathless rhetoric used to talk about Iran's potential, but far from certain, acquisition of a nuclear weapon in the future.

The current threat posed by Iran is exaggerated by conflating it with the potential, but far from certain, future threat.

A nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran would be dangerous, and the United States must take steps to prevent this development. However, by nearly every quantifiable metric, Iran does not presently represent a serious threat to the United States based on its conventional arsenal.

A side-by-side comparison of the two countries' conventional military capabilities demonstrates the overwhelming superiority of the United States.

It is time to inject realism into discussions about U.S.-Iranian relations. Hyping the threat about Iran obscures the bottom line: Iran does not currently represent an existential threat to the United States or its allies, and there is still time to find a peaceful solution to Iran's nuclear program.

NOTES: Equipment totals exclude reserve/National Guard. This is significant because U.S. reserve/Guard capabilities for most platforms are greater than Iranian active and reserve capabilities combined. A 40,000-strong Iranian paramilitary force, known as the Basij, performs auxiliary law enforcement and border security functions during peacetime. Basij forces report to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. During wartime, somewhere between 450,000 and one million additional combat-capable paramilitary forces are estimated to be available, although the Iranian leadership estimates total Basij membership at 12.6 million.

There are a few things to keep in mind about this chart. First, the figures above are not fully representative of the force each country could bring to bear because they do not take into account the capabilities of each country's allies. For example, America's allies could assist in a potential conflict, and Iran could enlist support from Syria, Hamas, and/or Hezbollah. Second, much of Iran's arsenal is old or low-tech, so the equipment listed above does not indicate qualitative parity. For example, the Iranian Air Force operates aging Northrop Grumman F-14 Tomcats; Russian-made MiG-29s; Chinese-built F-7 M jetfighters; and even older fighter-bombers such as F-4s, F-5s, Su-24s, Su-25s, and Mirage F-1s. These combat aircraft are no match for an American air superiority fighter like the F-22 Raptor, not to mention the vast array of advanced sea and land-based planes operated by the U.S. military.

SOURCES: Population and GDP data is from Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook (updated March 2008). Defense spending data is from Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, The FY2009 Pentagon Spending Request: Global Military Spending (February 2008). Troop strength and conventional forces data is from International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2008 (February 2008). Nuclear forces data is from Robert Norris and Hans Kristensen, "U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2008," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (March/April 2008).