New Intelligence Estimate on Iran Calls for Credible Diplomatic Option to Extend Iran's Nuclear Weapons Halt
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: December 3, 2007
CONTACT: Carah Ong or Travis Sharp
Washington, D.C. – Key findings of a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran released today conclude that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, suggesting that Iran is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than has been assessed by U.S. intelligence agencies since 2005.
The NIE, which represents the consensus view of all 16 American intelligence agencies, reports that while Iran's ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, its "decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs."
Carah Ong, Iran Policy Analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, commented: "This NIE undermines the 'Mad Mullahs' argument made by those who support war with Iran. With the right mixture of diplomatic tools, there is a precedent for resolving the challenge of Iran's nuclear program without reducing ourselves to the false choice of war or capitulation."
Lieutenant General Robert Gard, Senior Military Fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, added: "Use of military force against Iran would be the height of folly. It would endanger our troops in the Middle East and promote highly damaging retaliation against U.S. and allied security interests world-wide."
The NIE concludes that Iran "probably would be technically capable of producing enough [highly enriched uranium] for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame." The report states that the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this goal before 2013 "because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems."
"Iran hawks argue that attacking Iran yesterday might be too late," remarked Ong. "The NIE's 3 to 8 year 'best-case-scenario' timeline, grounded in technical expertise, clearly articulates there is no imminent threat from Iran and demonstrates that the time for diplomacy is now."
The NIE goes on to state that all of the intelligence agencies agree that it could take until after 2015 for Iran to attain a nuclear capability.
Typically, NIEs are kept classified and only selectively released to Congress or leaked to the media. Key findings of the NIE, however, were released directly to the public. According to Ong, "The intelligence community is concerned that the same mistakes that were made in the lead up to the Iraq war may be repeated. This NIE represents an attempt to both set the record straight and put the onus squarely on Iran hawks in the Bush administration if an attack against Iran were to occur in the near future."
The full text of the publicly released NIE is available online.
The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation has led efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the confrontation with Iran - including direct talks without preconditions. This has included a petition urging members of Congress to prevent a military attack, a national newspaper campaign, a position paper exploring the path to a diplomatic solution, and a study indicating that there is no such thing as a "clean" military strike against Iran.
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